The change of import source structure is that the proportion of cotton import source countries will change in 2019 / 20, with Brazil accounting for the highest proportion of 35.44%, followed by the United States of America (34.90%) and Australia (11.09%). After the signing of the first stage economic and trade agreement between China and the United States, China promised to increase the import of agricultural products from the United States, and actively implemented the agreement. The quantity of cotton imported from the United States continued to rise.
From the perspective of textile consumption, textile consumption has recovered, and cotton demand slowly recovered. In 2019, China's cotton consumption as a whole declined to 7.65 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%. Since September 2020, the textile industry has shown a recovery growth trend, and the demand for cotton is also slowly picking up. China Cotton Association predicts that the national cotton consumption in 2020 / 21 will be 7.99 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 4%.
From the perspective of domestic demand for textiles, in 2019, due to the sluggish domestic demand, the retail value of domestic clothing, shoes and hats, knitted textile products accumulated 1.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.71%. In particular, affected by the new crown epidemic, the sales volume decreased significantly. In August, it turned from negative to positive for the first time this year. In September, the sales volume reached 112.48 billion yuan, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year.
The output of yarn and cloth both decreased. In 2019, the national yarn output was 26.529 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.99%; the cloth output was 40.1 billion meters, a year-on-year decrease of 21.83%; the chemical fiber output was 60.204 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 9.31%. In September 2020, the yarn output was 2.459 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%; the cloth output was 3.4 billion meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6%; the chemical fiber output was 5.417 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5%.
The decline of commercial inventory was relatively large, because the rotation of reserved cotton was delayed by two months compared with last year, and the rotation of some Xinjiang cotton, the commercial inventory at the end of the year continued to be lower than that of the same period of last year. China Cotton Association survey: by the end of 2019 / 20, China's commercial cotton inventory was 2.45 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 70900 tons. In September 2020, the commercial inventory of cotton in China was about 2.093 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 110000 tons, and the industrial inventory of 659000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.1%. Xinjiang cotton used by textile enterprises accounted for about 90% of the total cotton consumption.
The supply and demand of domestic cotton is basically balanced. Although the production of textile enterprises has a recovery growth, the demand for cotton is slowly rising. A large number of new cotton are on the market, and the supply and demand are basically balanced. We forecast that in 2020 / 21, the total cotton production in China will be 5.932 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 0.44%; the import volume will be 1.98 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 25.3%; and the consumption will be 7.99 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 4%.
