In the afternoon of July 2, the futures market was very hot. PTA futures rose and stopped all the way. Up to the time of publication, the main contract PTA1909 quoted 6448 yuan/ton, up 5.02%, a new two-and-a-half-month high. Since late June, PTA has gradually stepped out of a strong upward pattern after the adjustment of the previous period. Since June 24, PTA has risen sharply for six consecutive trading days, with a cumulative increase of more than 16.47%.
Upstream cost support continues to strengthen
PTA futures have rebounded sharply since trade tensions eased. China and the United States resumed economic and trade negotiations on the basis of equality and mutual respect, and the United States no longer imposed new tariffs on China's export products, the focus of international oil prices rose, resulting in good support for PX cost side.
Downstream PTA main futures prices rose and stopped strongly due to capital inflows and better demand for polyester. Spot prices rose concomitantly, and the buying enthusiasm of Asian PX market increased. Therefore, macro-factors are one of the factors driving PTA price rise, and the trend of support in a short time may continue to be strong.
The Change of Supply and Demand Patterns to Better
Since June, PTA factories frequently stop short because of faults, which makes the anticipated situation of accumulating stores in June change to the situation of depot removal. The supply and demand of PTA have changed well. In addition, the main factories control the price, which makes the situation of tight spot circulation in the market become more popular, the basis continues to strengthen, and the spot price presents. High momentum.
In this case, the inventory of polyester products decreased significantly, and the start-up rate of polyester factories increased gradually, which supported the rigid demand for PTA, and led to the inventory de-conversion of PTA.
Warming-up of weaving terminal needs to be verified urgently
Although the start-up of polyester has been rebounded and the inventory has been removed significantly, the overall load of domestic weaving equipment is still low and the inventory is high because the terminal weaving link has not really warmed up. The sharp decline of polyester product inventory is still dominated by inventory transfer. Whether the inventory transferred to the weaving sector can be effectively digested is the focus of our next attention.
If inventory can be transmitted downward, the market will continue. If the weaving end has not been substantially improved and the stock can not be effectively transmitted, the future market trend still needs to be a question mark.
In a word, cost support, production capacity decline and demand increase have alleviated the market's worry about PTA over-supply effectively. Moreover, under the pressure of stricter environmental protection, the market's concern about PTA shortage will increase. With the expected support of the change of supply and demand pattern, PTA prices are expected to continue to strengthen in the near future, once they break through the 6500 line weight. Neck line pressure level will form a V-shaped reversal market, a wave of trend market will open!
