According to the data released recently by the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing, in December 2020, the purchasing manager index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry was 51.9%, which was above the critical point for 10 consecutive months.
"China's economic recovery will continue to consolidate." Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician of the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics, said that the overall manufacturing industry maintained a good momentum of steady recovery, and the prosperity was at a high level in the year.
From the perspective of sub index, in the five sub indexes of manufacturing PMI, the production index and new order index are higher than the critical point. Zhao Qinghe said that both sides of production and demand continue to improve. The production index and the new order index were 54.2% and 53.6% respectively. Although they fell by 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points compared with the previous month, they were the second highest points in the year, and the difference between them continued to narrow. The manufacturing industry maintained a good growth trend, and the relationship between production and demand became more balanced.
The import and export index continued to expand for four consecutive months. The new export order index and import index were 51.3% and 50.4% respectively, which continued to be in the boom range. "The survey results also show that the expected index of production and operation activities of export enterprises has rebounded for eight consecutive months, reaching the highest point of the whole year, and the confidence of manufacturing export enterprises in market development has been continuously strengthened." Zhao Qinghe said.
In addition, the leading role of high-tech manufacturing industry continues to appear. Since 2020, the PMI of high-tech manufacturing industry has always been higher than that of manufacturing industry as a whole, reaching 55.8% in December 2020. Although the PMI of high-tech manufacturing industry has dropped by 0.4 percentage point compared with that of last month, it is still the second highest point in the year. Among them, the production index, new order index and employee index were 59.3%, 58.2% and 52.6% respectively, which were 5.1%, 4.6% and 3.0 percentage points higher than the overall manufacturing industry, indicating that the high-tech manufacturing industry is booming in production and demand, and the labor demand continues to grow, which has significantly driven the overall recovery of the manufacturing industry.
However, Zhao Qinghe also pointed out that the price of some bulk commodities continued to rise in the near future, and the market demand continued to pick up, which accelerated the rise of the purchase price of raw materials and the sales price of products in the manufacturing industry. In December 2020, the purchase price index and ex factory price index of main raw materials were 68.0% and 58.9% respectively, which were 5.4 and 2.4 percentage points higher than last month, both of which were the highest points of the whole year. The rapid rise in the price of raw materials has increased the cost pressure of enterprises, with 49.4% of the enterprises reflecting the high cost of raw materials, the highest in the past two years.
In addition, there is still differentiation among enterprises. In December 2020, the PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises was 52.7%, which continued to run in the boom range of 52.0% and above; the PMI of small enterprises was 48.8%, which was 1.3 percentage points lower than that of last month, falling below the boom and bust line. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe said that the proportion of small enterprises reflecting the high cost of raw materials, logistics and labor increased by 5.0, 4.6 and 1.5 percentage points respectively compared with last month. The operating cost of small enterprises increased, and the profit space was squeezed to a certain extent.
Wen bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, believes that the recovery of small enterprises is weak and there are still some difficulties in the recovery process. In the next stage, the macro policy should maintain continuity, stability and sustainability, grasp the time and effect of the policy, increase the support for the manufacturing industry, small and micro enterprises and other weak links, do a good job in policy continuity, improve the accuracy and effectiveness of the policy, and further consolidate the foundation of recovery.
