PTA futures are very sensitive to the agitation of the spot market. After the National Day holiday, there are two changes in the spot market. One is that maintenance leads to a decrease in supply, but this is staged; the other is that polyester quickly accumulates in the warehouse, and causes the market to worry about the demand after the future peak season. One is short-term good, the other is long-term bad, while 2001 contract obviously focuses on long-term bad, so PTA period price keeps falling.
No pressure at supply end in October
After the National Day holiday, two 3.6 million ton units of Hengli Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and Honggang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. were overhauled successively, with a planned overhaul period of 12-15 days, and several units of Huabin Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and yishanda Petrochemical Co., Ltd. were successively reduced in production. Among them, yishanhua's 2.2-million-ton plant has been reduced to 50%, and its production is planned to be reduced by 10 days. Next, the planned maintenance in October includes the production capacity of 7.2 million tons of Hanbang petrochemical, Hengli petrochemical, Yisheng Ningbo and Yangzi Petrochemical, with the maintenance time of 12-15 days. At present, the processing fee is only 700 yuan / ton, which is significantly lower than the previous period, and the profit of the factory is very little, which further increases the power of factory maintenance. The planned maintenance rate will probably be implemented. In October, PTA materials will be destocked by 150000-200000 tons.
There are still many units to be overhauled in November, and the supply end in October and November is significantly less than that in September. The new capacity of xinfengming and Hengli Petrochemical was put into production later than expected, and the increase of PTA spot supply brought by new capacity before the end of the year was limited. PTA supply is decreasing on a month on month basis, but market concerns about poor demand continue to put pressure on prices.
Poor demand drags market expectations
After the National Day holiday, polyester production and sales in the lower reaches were not good, and inventory increased significantly. According to the data of China fiber network, as of October 18, the inventory of POY, DTY and FDY of polyester filament increased by 8-9 days compared with that before the festival, and the inventory of polyester staple fiber increased by 7 days. The increase of polyester end inventory reflects the short-term weakness of terminal demand. Although the overall polyester start-up did not decline significantly, it remained at about 90%, but the rapid rise in inventory exacerbated market concerns. Negative expected fermentation, the period price gradually down.
Profit recovery of polyester end products
However, there are also some positive changes in the market. The price of PTA and MEG, the two main raw materials of polyester, has been falling recently. Although the price of polyester is also falling, the overall falling range is smaller than the raw material end. After the National Day holiday, PTA spot fell by about 4%, MEG spot fell by more than 10%. During the same period, the price of polyester staple fiber was stable, and polyester filament fell by 3% - 4% respectively. Compared with October 10, the current profit recovery of polyester staple fiber is more than 300 yuan / ton, and the profit recovery of polyester filament is 50-100 yuan / ton, respectively. The recovery of polyester end profit will help stabilize polyester operation. It is expected that polyester construction will not decline too much before November, and PTA demand is relatively stable.
Aftermarket logic and trading strategy
Although PTA is still falling, the recovery of polyester profits helps stabilize downstream demand. The PTA processing fee at the supply side is significantly lower and is still in de stocking. After the market fully reflects the expectation of future demand decline, the market is out of bad position at different stages, and the power of further decline of the period price is weakening. At present, it is not suitable to catch up with the short position at low price.
In the future, if the PTA plant has unexpected maintenance due to the decrease of processing fee, it is likely to bring the spot periodical or partial supply shortage, so as to promote the period price rebound. It is suggested that the short order in the early stage should consider the appropriate bargain hunting to stop the profit, and try to increase the price difference by 1-5.
