Resuming clothing consumption during and after SARS epidemic in 2003
1) Epidemic period: the SARS epidemic in 2003 mainly affected Q2, and the retail growth of clothing, shoes and hats in 03q2 was significantly slowed down by 12.4pct to 6.3%; the extent of damage was greater than that of the overall retail and the top optional categories. 2) After the epidemic period (03q3 ~ 04q2): there is restorative consumption, and its range is smaller than that of retail. The recovery consumption was mainly reflected in the second half of 2003 and 04q2, which accounted for 14-68% of the total consumption loss during the epidemic, with an average of 44%.
In general, the impact of the epidemic on clothing consumption was first damaged and then rebounded, but the rebound did not fully make up for the drag of the epidemic. The overall impact was negative. In 2003, the epidemic slowed down the retail growth of clothing, shoes and hats by 2.3-2.6pct. In the long term, the growth rate of the industry is still increasing year by year from 2002 to 2004, and the epidemic only brings short-term disturbance, which does not change the growth trend of the industry.
How to deduce the short-term impact of the epidemic in 2020?
On the basis of 2003, this paper deduces the impact of the epidemic in 2020: 1) impact rhythm: clothing, shoes and hats consumption will continue some characteristics of 2003. During the epidemic period, consumption is suppressed and recovery consumption is expected to occur later, but the recovery consumption range is expected to be unable to fully compensate for the consumption loss during the epidemic period and the comprehensive impact is negative. 2) The influence degree is compared with that in 2003: it is necessary to consider the comprehensive judgment of different directions brought by the change of multiple factors, such as the stronger prevention and control of this round of epidemic, the more rational economic development and consumers at present, which may lead to the decrease of clothing preference, and the relatively mature development of online channels can help to recover some consumption losses.
What trend changes will the epidemic bring to the industry?
It is expected that this round of epidemic will not change the overall characteristics and development stage of the industry, but will bring some trend and structural changes, such as promoting the development of the molecular industry and improving the overall efficiency of the industry.
The key points are as follows: 1) the sports clothing category is in a high boom, and the demand for sports fitness materials increases after the epidemic, which adds to the beauty of it; 2) the penetration rate of non-woven related products is low, the epidemic will increase the demand for related protective articles in the short term, promote the change of industrial structure in the long term, and the industrial textiles represented by non-woven fabrics are expected to develop smoothly. 3) The channel end line continues to integrate online and offline to improve efficiency; 4) the marketing end live broadcast brings goods and embraces the fan economy.
Investment suggestion
Short term perspective: clothing industry retail is expected to be under pressure during the epidemic, focusing on the fundamental inflection point opportunities brought by the emergence of related protective equipment, live TV brand and restorative consumption.
Long term perspective: 1) from the perspective of sub industries, it is recommended to continue to focus on Anta sports, Li Ning, the leading sports clothing companies, and related cursor up Shenzhou International, Jiansheng group, etc., as well as non-woven fabric related benefit targets. 2) From the perspective of the industry as a whole, the clothing industry is relatively mature, and the epidemic period intensifies the survival of the fittest and promotes the improvement of concentration. The leading companies with perfect online and offline layout and actively embracing the new channel / marketing change trend of the industry will have stronger anti risk ability, pay attention to the leading people's clothing, Hailan home, Senma clothing, etc., acquire the live e-commerce MCN institutions looking forward to the Saturday of the network , as well as kairun shares, Antarctic e-commerce, etc., which account for a relatively high proportion online.
Risk warning
Terminal retail is weak; domestic epidemic affects more than expected, affects enterprise sales and production; international epidemic affects more than expected, affects China's textile export orders.
