Resumption of recovery rate will drive data improvement
On February 29, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Manager Index. The latest data show that in February 2020, China's purchasing manager index was greatly affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic. The manufacturing PMI was 35.7%, a decrease of 14.3 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 29.6%, a decrease from the previous month 24.5 percentage points. At the same time, the survey results show that with the Party Central Committee and the State Council coordinating the promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the current rate of resumption of work in enterprises is rising rapidly, and production and operation activities are recovering in an orderly manner. As of February 25, among the companies surveyed by the national procurement managers, the resumption rate of large and medium-sized enterprises was 78.9%, of which large and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises reached 85.6%.
庆 Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in February, affected by the epidemic, the manufacturing PMI fell sharply from last month. There are four main features:
First, the industries that protect basic people's livelihood are relatively affected. Among them, the PMI of chemical fiber, general equipment, special equipment, and automobile industries fell below 30.0%; the PMI of agricultural and sideline food processing, food and alcoholic beverages and refined tea industries that ensure the basic needs of the people remained above 42.0%, providing hygiene The PMI of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry for health and medical protection is 39.7%, which is higher than the overall level of the manufacturing industry and is relatively less affected. Second, the decline in the new orders index was smaller than the production index. Among the 21 industries surveyed, the new order index of 15 industries such as agricultural and sideline food processing, food and wine refined tea, and medicine was higher than the production index, especially the new order index of the agricultural and sideline food processing industry was still in the expansion range. Third, the pressure on manufacturing import and export has increased. Some surveyed companies reported that due to the impact of the epidemic, order cancellations and delays in delivery have increased. Fourth, the PMI of large, medium and small enterprises generally fell.
In terms of service industry, among the 21 industries surveyed, 19 industries have business activity indexes in the contraction range, but the financial industry business activity index is 50.1%, which continues to stay in the expansion range, and plays an important role in epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development Played an important role. It is worth noting that although the business activity index of the telecommunications and Internet software industries has declined, it is significantly better than the overall level of the service industry and is higher than that of the service industry under the support of new formats and technologies such as cloud office, online education, and remote medical services The business activity index was 13.2 and 11.3 percentage points. Demand in the consumer industry, where transportation, accommodation, catering, tourism, and resident services are highly concentrated, has plummeted, and business activity indexes have fallen below 20.0%. However, the expected index of business activity in the civil engineering and construction industry is 51.8%, which remains above the threshold, indicating that the relevant companies have confidence in the recovery of the industry.
"In February, the comprehensive PMI output index was 28.9%, a decrease of 24.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises have slowed down significantly. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index that constitute the comprehensive PMI output index are 27.8% and 29.6%. "Zhao Qinghe said, although the new crown pneumonia epidemic has caused a great impact on the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises in the short term, the epidemic situation has been initially contained, and the negative impact on production is gradually weakening, and the rate of return to work is rising. Faster, market confidence recovered steadily.
Zhao Qinghe said that the survey of purchasing managers showed that the resumption rate of large and medium-sized enterprises will rise to 90.8% at the end of March, of which 94.7% is manufacturing, which is 11.9 and 9.1 percentage points higher than the current rate. Recently, a series of policies and measures such as tax and fee reduction, financial services, rent reduction and employment subsidy for the epidemic, especially support for small and medium-sized enterprises to overcome difficulties, have been gradually implemented, which will effectively alleviate the difficulties brought by the epidemic to the production and operation of enterprises To further boost corporate confidence and accelerate the pace of resumption of production and production, it is expected that China's purchasing manager index will improve in March.
